Lung Cancer Mortality Among Women Projected to Increase 43% by 2030, Study Finds

The global age-standardized lung cancer mortality rate among women is expected to increase by 43% from 2015 to 2030, while the global age-standardized breast cancer mortality rate is projected to decrease by 9%, according to an analysis published in Cancer Research.

“While we have made great strides in reducing breast cancer mortality globally, lung cancer mortality rates among women are on the rise worldwide,” study author Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez, PhD, MPH, BSc, said in a statement. “If we do not implement measures to reduce smoking behaviors in this population, lung cancer mortality will continue to increase throughout the world.”

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The study used data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database from 2008 to 2014 in order to analyze breast cancer and female lung cancer mortality. Fifty-two countries were considered in the data and fit the criteria of reporting data for at least 4 years between 2008 and 2014 and had a population more than 1 million. Of the total countries, 29 were from Europe, 14 were from the Americas, 7 were from Asia, and 2 were from Oceania.

The researchers used the WHO World Standard Population to calculate the lung and breast cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) in women, reported as per 100,000 persons; therefore, the analysis could compare countries with different age distributions and demonstrate

The results revealed that globally, among women, the mortality rate for lung cancer is projected to increase from 11.2 in 2015 to 16.0 in 2030, with the highest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030 to be in Europe and Oceania. The lowest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030 are expected to be in America and Asia. Furthermore, Oceania was the only place expected to face a decrease in lung cancer mortality with an estimated decline from 17.8 in 2015 to 17.6 in 2030, according to the study.

For breast cancer, the mortality was projected to decrease from 16.1 in 2015 to 14.7 in 2030. Although the highest breast cancer mortality rating was predicted in Europe, there was a decreasing trend overall. Additionally, the lowest breast cancer mortality rate was predicted to be Asia which had an increasing overall trend.

“In the same period, the ASMR will decrease in 36 countries for breast cancer and in 15 countries for lung cancer. In half of the countries analyzed, and in nearly three quarters of those classified as high-income countries, the ASMR for lung cancer has already surpassed or will surpass the breast cancer ASMR before 2030,” noted the study. “The mortality for lung and breast cancer is higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries; lung cancer mortality is lower in the latter because the tobacco epidemic is not yet widespread.”

The authors noted this research could help policy makers and health professionals decide on global strategies to help address the effects and prevalance of lung cancer among women.

Reference

Martín-Sánchez JC, Lunet N, González-Marrón A, et al. Projections in breast and lung cancer mortality among women: a Bayesian analysis of 52 countries worldwide. Cancer Res. 2018;78(15)4436-4442. doi:10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-18-0187.