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US Birthrate Reaches Historic Low, New CDC Data Reveal
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The birth rate in the US continues its 17-year decline, with fertility levels now at their lowest in decades, according to CDC data.
The US birthrate has reached a historic low, continuing a 17-year trend of decline that experts attribute to economic concerns, cultural shifts, and evolving views on family life, rather than immediate causes for alarm.1
“Not having children, or having fewer children, is becoming more socially acceptable,” said Sarah Hayford, PhD, MA, director of the Institute for Population Research at the Ohio State University, in a statement to The Hill. “As a result, people are weighing more carefully the decision to have children.”
In 2007, the rate reached a height not seen since the 1990s, at 69.5 births per 1000 women aged 15 to 44 years, according to CDC data. Since then, the US birthrate has continued its decline, and is now at its lowest levels observed in decades.
The analysis was based on data from the National Vital Statistics System's natality data file, which collects information from all US birth certificates and includes information for all births within the US, and supported by the 2023 natality public-use file, offering a detailed examination of birth trends and related factors such as maternal age, prenatal care, and pregnancy risk factors..2
The general fertility rate was calculated as the number of births per 1000 females aged 15 to 44 years. Additionally, teenage birth rates were calculated as births per 1000 females within specific age groups: 15 to 19 years, 15 to 17 years, and 18 to 19 years.
Statistical significance for changes in rates and percentages was determined using a 2-tailed z test at the 0.05 level, while changes in the number of births were assessed using a χ² test. The rates were based on population estimates from the 2020 census and subsequent updates, reflecting both the changes in birth numbers and population dynamics from 2022 to 2023.
Key findings from the report indicate that the number of births in the US declined by 2% from 2022 to 2023, with the general fertility rate dropping by 3% to 54.5 births per 1000 females aged 15 to 44 years. Notably, birth rates for teenagers also decreased, with a 4% decline for females aged 15 to 19 years, including a 2% drop for those aged 15 to 17 years and a 5% decrease for those aged 18 to 19 years.
Additionally, the percentage of mothers receiving prenatal care in the first trimester fell by 1%, while the percentage of mothers receiving no prenatal care increased by 5%. The preterm birth rate remained stable at 10.41%, but early-term births saw a 2% increase, reaching 29.84%.
However, experts note that the birthrate decline may not be something to be concerned about. Changing family structures and shifting population demographics “raise policy issues,” said Hayford, but those issues aren’t inherently more difficult to find solutions for than others.1
“If people want to have children but are not able to because of economic constraints, to me that would be a cause for concern,” said Hayford.
References
1. O’Connell-Domenech A. US birthrate hits new low, CDC data shows. The Hill. August 20, 2024. Accessed August 21, 2024. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4837169-us-birth-rate-drop-2022-2023/
2. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJ. Births in the United States, 2023. CDC. August 20, 2024. Accessed August 21, 2024. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db507.htm#Data%20sources%20and%20methods
